Who won the Asian Games? USSA Malaysia fires up its research department for another riveting analysis

    China won the Asian Games no matter how you look at it. But if you're interested in some quant-like discussion of points and demographics then read on. It's time for our riveting analysis of the Asian Games medal distribution and point scoring.

    Our analysis of medals and points was hampered by a remarkably useless Games website. The only useful medal table was the one that listed total medals for each country. There was no breakdown of medals by sex and there was no listing of the number of athletes that each country entered. This is important information that needs to be added to event protocols and not simply left up to the data wranglers, most of whom I'm convinced don't know anything about sports.

    I discussed the poor presentation of information in an earlier article about the 2017 SEA Games. There's far more to reporting this kind of information than simply designing a nice looking website.

    So, we are left with the total point analysis and the points per million population comparison.

    Background

    We started doing these analyses during the 2017 SEA Games in Kuala Lumpur because the media and almost everyone else was focusing only on the number of gold medals that each country won with an unexplained disregard for silver and bronze medals. We used the brilliantly conceived McClung Point Scale to give actual value to each medal color: Five points for gold, three for silver, and one for bronze.

    Calculating points in this manner is a better way to measure overall performance depth of participating teams. Ranking countries based only on gold medals masks strong performance by countries with stellar athletes who simply are not in the top position. It misses a country's overall strength.

    Overall points analysis

    Table 1 ranks countries by points. Clearly China is the winner overall no matter how you want to score the competition. But notice how the silver and bronze medals reveal the depth of other countries teams.

    For example, Taiwan won two more golds than India but scored fewer points overall because of India's strong 'bench' with 24 silvers to Taiwan's 19. Taiwan had a few better athletes but India is clearly the stronger team.

    Likewise, Malaysia beat Bahrain in overall points but won five fewer golds. Malaysia's strength, its silver and bronze medal finishes, exactly mirrored Bahrain's weakness. Bahrain has little overall team strength, as shown by their 12-7-7 combination of medals. This is the signature of a country that is relying on a handful of top performers with little left in the depth chart. (Check out Table 2 to see where Bahrain really shines!)

    Qatar is in the same situation as Bahrain with a lopsided 6-4-3 medal spread. Its lack of depth placed it behind Vietnam, Mongolia, and Singapore.

    Points per million population

    As usual with this kind of comparison relatively small population countries like Bahrain, Qatar, and maybe Mongolia, skew the results. Likewise for countries with especially large populations like China and India. When point production per million population is compared these countries tend to shift position on the points table.

    Table 2 lists the countries according to points per million population. Statistically this is not really a reliable metric because there are so many variables that can affect the outcome, economic strength and overall development being just two of them. But we can see that Bahrain, Qatar, and Mongolia, all near the bottom of the points chart in Table 1, are now at the top in points per million population, and China and India, two top point getters, are at the bottom in terms of population.

    Is Table 2 significant? Not in any real way. It's mostly interesting to look at if you're into numbers and unless we're able to plug in additional variables like economics and a development constant it doesn't really tell us much.

    About this analysis

    Although the sport systems in each country are all slightly different their efforts are directed toward similar goals, thus the closer countries get to producing high performance athletes the more their systems begin to look alike, so analysis like this appear to be comparing similar conditions.

    However, sport development is subject to various social and cultural variables that are unique to each country. A deeper analysis of performance than the one presented in this article has to take these social variables into account. The present analysis does not do this and thus cannot offer reasons as to why certain countries performed as they did.

    Another factor that affects overall performance is travel. Poorer countries might have sent only their very best athletes to the Games while others sent much larger teams. Larger teams usually have an advantage in multi-sport competitions. Travel cost plays a significant role in determining how many athletes will attend.

    Finally, it is important to point out the questionable nature of determining winners in large multi-sport competitions. Our analysis of the 2017 SEA Games and the 2018 Commonwealth Games pointed out that any scoring system used, ours included, offers only a superficial look at what really took place. The real results occur within each sports tournament and probably should not be combined into an overall winner, medal counts notwithstanding.

    Next up is our Malaysia Games analysis. The SUKMA, as it is know locally, gets underway on 11 September and features competition in 29 sports between all Malaysian states and the country of Brunei.

    --------
    Bill Price (price@ussa-my.com) is the Chief Information Officer at USSA Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.

    All articles

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    KL2017: Reporting individual sport results deserved better planning - 29 August 2017


    Is the SEA Games event program too big? - 21 August 2017


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    Can we please forget about ways to identify talent and just work on getting more athletes? - 07 August 2017


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    Using the team selection process to boost motivation and increase athlete participation - 24 July 2017


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    LTAD: The Train to Train stage - 10 July 2017


    Training for performance vs. exercising for weight loss. Yes, there's a difference! - 03 July 2017


    LTAD: The Learn-to-Train stage - 26 June 2017


    When it comes to fitness, ROUTINE is the magic word - 19 June 2017


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    What is a therapeutic use exemption and is it cheating? - 03 October 2016


    Early sport specialization is still not a good idea - 19 September 2016


    What kind of data do we need to develop sports? - 12 September 2016


    The attrition and transformation models of sport development - 05 September 2016


    Solve for <X> - 29 August 2016


    Parental support is vital to sport success - 22 August 2016


    Artificial elimination of athletes from training and competition hinders sport development in Malaysia - 15 August 2016


    A sport development system vs. just being lucky - 08 August 2016


    The IOC is wrong: Russia should have been banned from Rio - 28 July 2016


    Building pyramids: A lesson in goal setting - 20 June 2016


    What if opportunity never knocks? - 13 June 2016


    Early sport specialization is not a good development strategy - 30 May 2016


    It's time to stop talking about BMI - 24 May 2016


    Happy Teachers' Day! - 16 May 2016


    USSA Malaysia at official Khidmat Negara 2.0 launch - 27 April 2016


    Changing the SEA Games event list ignores key sport development principles - 16 April 2016


    Welcome PLKN trainers! - 25 March 2016


    Malaysian youth are not overweight, but they're not active either - 15 February 2016


    Cycling coach hits the nail on the head - 5 February 2016


    McClung launches Healthy Lifestyle book at convocation ceremony - 01 January 2016


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    REMINDER: Deadline to register for convocation is 27 November! - 25 November 2015


    Convocation registration is now open! - 20 November 2015


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    The coach's role in creating a deliberate practice environment - 02 November 2015


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    IDPESC convocation set for Thursday, 3 December - 29 September 2015


    When should athletes specialize in a single sport? - 11 September 2015


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    Selamat Hari Merdeka! - 31 August 2015


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    Revisiting the 10,000 hour rule: Practical thoughts on talent and practice - 10 August 2015


    The one-minute exercise program - 01 August 2015


    The power of 'not yet' - 20 July 2015


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    Playing football in class is not physical education - 29 June 2015


    Why is there no grade for the CEE 526 data submission? - 28 June 2015


    Let's stop trying to identify sport talent and start developing it - 22 June 2015


    Account recovery process streamlined - 19 June 2015


    Seeing and listening use different parts of the brain - 15 June 2015


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    Ban the sit-up - 09 June 2015


    Assignments highlighted in red need to be resubmitted - 30 May 2015


    Age and sex of performance testing subjects are determined by their IC number - 23 May 2015


    Happy Teacher's Day! - 16 May 2015


    30 May deadline for second batch of IDPESC assignments - 12 May 2015


    USSA-MY gets new look - 11 May 2015


    1. Three problems facing Malaysian sport - 27 November 2017
    2. Dietary sugar comes from lots of different sources - 15 October 2018
    3. Who won the Malaysia Games? Selangor, but Terengganu is the real star of the show! - 01 October 2018
    4. What is the anaerobic threshold? - 06 February 2017
    5. Deliberate practice vs. late specialization - 24 September 2018
    6. Knowing the difference between a sports program and a sports team is the difference between high performance and poor performance - 23 January 2017
    7. "Naturalization is the key to sport success." Really? - 30 January 2017
    8. Malaysian schoolchildren study illustrates relative age effect - 13 February 2017
    9. Individualism vs. collectivism in sport - 26 December 2016
    10. Malaysia's sibutramine incident offers a glimpse into the complexity of the drugs in sport issue - 06 November 2017
    11. Some ideas for Malaysia's new sports minister - 14 May 2018
    12. A foreign coach is not always the answer - 17 October 2016
    13. Re-thinking the mission of Malaysia's sport associations - 03 September 2018
    14. USSA Malaysia at official Khidmat Negara 2.0 launch - 27 April 2016
    15. LTAD: The Train to Train stage - 10 July 2017
    16. Who won the SEA Games? - 04 September 2017
    17. USSA Malaysia teaching Fit4Life module in Khidmat Negara pilot - 26 October 2015
    18. You're out! BAM eliminates players from Super Series and Grand Prix Gold tournaments unless they join BAM program - 10 October 2017
    19. Understanding the role that intrinsic and extrinsic motivation play in the athlete development process - 20 November 2017
    20. Early sport specialization is not a good development strategy - 30 May 2016